Software Development Estimation (and breaking through The Planning Fallacy)

Everyone involved in software development sucks at estimating the time to complete tasks.
Developers. Analysts. Even project managers.

I recently heard a very really simple solution for this problem on a podcast that was discussing The Planning Fallacy.
The solution:

Multiply your estimates by Pi (3.14)

I’ve tried this a few times over the last week and it actually works.
My estimates are finally starting to match reality. And this includes such simple things as writing and responding to emails.

There’s only one problem – that’s jot really a problem – is:

Managers and customers are not going to like hearing the truth

Estimates are going to sound long and expensive, and you will be pushed to reduce them again.

Don’t back down.
Stick to your guns.

The real problem with estimation is not that we suck at it.
The problem is we are forced to cut corners and revise to unrealistic numbers that “sound good” to the customer’s ears.
It never works, and always blow out, and then the shit hits the fan, and stress increases as projects run over time and developers are coerced into working stupid overtime.

If we just do the right thing in the first place and communicate what’s real, everyone knows where they stand and everyone will be happy in the long run.